The Future Looks Grim – #4
Prepared by John Stephenson. April. 27rd.2008 Phone 905-263-8830
Introduction
The next two to four years are, in my opinion, likely to have a profound effect upon the lifestyle of the average Canadian. Three different effects are 'in the wings' and will arrive more or less simultaneously, and will have a major impact upon the Canadian economy and the way in which we live our lives.
Note: I can not predict the future any more than any other person, but 'the writing is on the wall' for all to see. The three effects are described in the paragraphs below:
1) The Financial Situation
For more information see www.theautomaticearth.blogspot.com
The financial situation in the U.S.A, due to sub-prime mortgage problems and credit overload is not getting better. The Federal Reserve has, in the last two months, put billions of dollars into the commercial banking system in order to try to shore up bank credit facilities. While it appears that this has given a temporary respite, it is not likely to be successful over the next several months because the total amount of debt in the U.S. is probably of the order of two or three trillion dollars (perhaps more!). It will take one event such as the failure of a Bond Insurance Corporation (e.g. Ambac Financial Corporation.) or a run on a major bank, (e.g. Citibank) to cause the whole system to collapse. This may occur as soon as the last quarter of 2008 or later in 2009. It will cause a serious depression in the U.S. which could last for several years. It is reasonably certain that Canada will follow the U.S. into a serious depression.
On April 24th, The Governor of the Bank of Canada stated that economic growth in Canada will be at about 0.3% in the latter half of 2008 (and he is not likely to be overstating the case) – the situation in America is catching up with us!
On March 22nd. the center front page of the Toronto Star proclaimed:
The Deepening U.S. Credit Crisis
FIVE Reasons to start worrying right now
Been tuning out talk of economic gloom south of the Border?
Here's why it is time to finally start listening:
Need a Loan? Good luck with that.
Jobs will disappear and incomes will drop.
If Americans stop buying – Look-out Canada
Banks aren't doing enough to keep our trust.
Big business is about to take a beating
The next two years will be a period without historic precedent!
The financial media are not writing about the current events with any significant degree of insight. The result is that they are denying the people the opportunity to prepare themselves for the coming crisis. The worst effects of the crisis will be felt in the USA and in countries that are closely tied to the United States.
Expect the effects of the crisis to start biting in Canada by Aug/Sept.
2) World Production of Fuel Oil
For more information see www.theoildrum.com
World production of all kinds of fuel oil has been on a 'bumpy plateau' since 2005. Fig 1 shows total world oil production up till Feb. 2008. Fig.1 also shows predicted demand for the next 10 years or so. It suggests that demand will continue to increase into the future, but this is an impossibility, because satisfied demand can not be greater than supply. There is some evidence that the world supply will be equal to the world demand by 2009 (although this may be delayed if a major recession reduces world demand for fuel oils). There is also evidence that the world demand for fuel oil is steadily increasing by as much as 2 to 3 percent per year. At the same time many of the world's oil exporting countries have passed their peak production capabilities – so their output is decreasing every year, and their own internal consumption is increasing every year, so that they have less oil to export. Some countries are currently at their peak output and will have reduced output in the next year or two. Other countries are still developing fields and will have new output – but the new output is not likely to exceed the diminished output from the other oil exporters. The overall effect that we can expect to see in the time frame 2010 to 2012 is a 5 to 10 percent shortfall in world supply versus world demand. We will experience this in the form of international competition for fuel oil (much higher prices; oil price hit a record high of $119.93 per barrel on April 27th.); also shortages at the pump – we can expect to have to line up at those pumps that still have gasoline available. This situation will only get worse over time – it will never get better! For those who want more information I can recommend www.theoildrum.com for daily information on the future of our fuel oil supplies and the effects that we may expect to see related to a shortage of fuel oil.
It is important that you understand that oil production after we fall off the edge of the plateau will decrease over time. It will never get better!
Many people ask 'what about discoveries of new oil fields?. Yes, there will be new discoveries!
But;
i) they will likely be difficult to get at (e.g. the new discovery off the coast of Brazil – under 6000 meters of water and a 1500 meters of crystalline salt), even if drilling is successful, oil will not come on stream for at least 10 years.
ii) we can't afford to burn the oil in new discoveries because it will increase atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
Be prepared to ride your bike in 2011
3) Global Warming.
For more information Google “Climate Code Red” .
We must reduce our use of fossil fuels to Zero- NOW
Global warming is getting steadily worse – 100 years ahead of schedule?
James Hansen of NASA has suggested that the danger level for carbon dioxide may be as low as 350 parts per million. We are already at 385 parts per million, and there are approx. another 50 parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent gases (such as methane and nitrous oxide etc.) also in the atmosphere. This adds up to a total of about 435 parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent gases in the atmosphere. However, certain types of small particulates in the upper atmosphere reflect some sunlight back out to space (i.e. cool the planet). When we account for this effect the current effective (equivalent) carbon dioxide concentration is approximately 370 ppm.
The World Conference on Global Warming in Bali (Nov. 2007) decided that a temperature increase of 2 to 2.4 deg. C. would be acceptable and that carbon dioxide concentrations could be allowed to increase to about 450 ppm. James Hansen says that this 2 to 2.4 deg.C. may well turn out to be 3 or 4 or 6 deg. C and maybe even 10 deg.C. because nobody has any data on the extent of positive feedbacks from such things as methane release from permafrost, or the deep oceans, or other feedbacks as yet unknown. He states that the safe level of global warming is likely to be not more than 0.5 deg.C. - we should not risk letting the Planet increase its temperature above that level.
Recent news items have reported that there is a possibility that the Arctic will be ice free in late summer of 2008. It is reasonably certain that it will be ice free in late summer by 2013. Being ice free will change the albedo of the Arctic Ocean from about 0.1 to 0.8; increasing the rate of global warming in the polar region. This, in turn will increase the rate of melting of the Greenland Ice Plateau, which may in turn cause the Greenland coastal glaciers to slide into the ocean. At the same time the West Antarctic Ice field at the South Pole will be disintegrating. It is not unreasonable to expect a rise in sea level of the order of 1 or 2 meters by 2030. A rise in sea level of one or two meters will cause perhaps 500 million people to be displaced from coastal cities (New York, Boston etc.) and low lying agricultural areas (e.g. river deltas such as the Nile and the Ganges – say goodbye to New Orleans) all around the world.
Business as usual is not an option
What will you do?
What can we do?
1) Awareness.
Have a municipal staff person prepare chart(s) showing:
1)a) The maximum world production of oil liquids.
b) The range of prices paid for a barrel of oil in the last month.
2) Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual mean temperatures for the
a) Northern hemisphere,
b) Southern hemisphere, and
c) Global Land/Ocean Surface Temperatures.
These charts to be displayed in a prominent place for the information of the Mayor, Councilors, Municipal Staff and the Public.
Education
i) Talk to the Boards of Education. Ask them as a matter of urgency to initiate programs for high School students on the implications of the American financial meltdown; expected energy shortages; and Global warming
ii) Initiate education and information programs on these subjects for adults.
iii) Call in our local MP and MPP, brief them on our concerns, and ask them to take these concerns to their respective Parliaments and Political Parties.
iv) Ask for a meeting with our Premier and Minister of Energy to express our concerns about global warming and the lack of meaningful action to mitigate these problems. Suggested actions could include:
a) Shut down Nanticoke coal fired generating station immediately
b) Ration electricity use in residential and commercial properties
c) Ration gasoline
2) Concentrate the Population in the Cities
i) Affordable Housing - build energy efficient 3 story apartments of not more than 300 - 600 square feet area in locations within easy walking distances of shopping areas
ii) Require all new buildings (Industrial, Commercial and Residential) in the Municipality to meet advanced levels of energy conservation and energy efficiency.
iii)Require all new housing to incorporate at least one room with a level of insulation such that the heating requirement in winter will be minimal (say, less than 1 kWh/h), and air conditioning in summer will not be necessary.
iv) Impose high taxes on new developments outside city limits in order to discourage that kind of expansion (such expansion causes increases in taxation to all citizens within the municipal boundaries).
v) Try to prevent an increase in the size of the local population
3) Transit
i) Construct bicycle lanes beside all roads, to make it safe for persons using normal and electrically assisted bicycles.
ii) Establish fast bus services
a) 'Through Routes' (e.g. from Newcastle to Oshawa 'GO', via
Hwy.2 with stops only at major transit nodes). These buses must be able to control traffic lights on their route so as to ensure a clear, fast route).
b) fast services to Toronto (via 401 using 'Bus Only' lanes) – pick up at special bus stations built beside 401 (with associated parking areas for bicycles and cars) and drop-off in Toronto at major transit stations
iii) Encourage people to reduce the number of journeys they make in their vehicles (Is your journey really necessary?) Stay home – enjoy your local community
iv) Establish transport on local routes throughout the municipality to service areas around major transit nodes. These services should be free to users (but charged to municipal taxes).
v) Stop construction of new roads and limit areas allocated for parking of private vehicles.
vi) Stop construction and expansion of airports.
4a) Solar Generation
i) Encourage residents to install solar electric panels and solar thermal panels on their homes and business' so as to reduce energy demands from residences, commercial buildings, and industrial buildings. Also encourage home owners to consider installing Thermal Mass Wood stoves in their homes as a form of sustainable energy
ii) Encourage residents to purchase and install wind powered generators and ground source heat generators (heat pumps)
iii) Install one or more 2 to 5 MW electrical wind generators for electricity supply in the town and rural areas.
iv) Initiate a competition in area high schools to construct a solar thermal collector. The designs to be made available for do-it-yourself home construction projects.
4b) Conservation and Efficiency
i) Reduce the amount of street lighting by a factor of 2 or more.
ii) Encourage energy conservation and efficiency in industrial, commercial buildings and residences.
iii) Promote sliding scales for energy prices – pay more as you use more.
iv) Employ one or more Technologists/Technicians to assess and promote energy conservation practices and efficient use of energy.
v) Encourage local High schools to design electrically powered equipment such as bicycles, tricycles, lawn mowers etc. Best designs to be made available for 'do it yourself' constructors.
5) Agriculture
i) Encourage local farmers and municipal area residents to enter into mutual contracts for the supply of poultry, eggs, grains (corn, wheat, barley, rye, spelt), legumes (peas, beans etc), fruits (apples etc.) and winter vegetables (potatoes, swedes, cabbage, brussel sprouts, cauliflower etc).
ii) Encourage residents to 'grow your own food' and poultry
iii) Teach High School students to grow their own food and the care of poultry and small animals (pigs. goats and sheep)
There will be other things you can do – spread the word!
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